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薯莨地理分布及适生区预测
林艳
华南农业大学
摘要:
以中药植物薯莨 Dioscorea cirrhosa 为研究对象,基于 86 个地理分布点信息,利用 Bioclim 模型预测其当前适生区和未来潜在适生区。采用 PCA 主成分分析法,对主导薯莨地理分布的关键气候因子进行定量分析。结果表明:广西和广东为薯莨当前最密集的分布区域,在未来气候变化的影响下,薯莨分布范围将在福建、江西等地缩小,呈现向最高适生区即广东、广西两省集中的趋势,而在湖南和贵州交界处将可能出现一定范围的潜在分布区;Bioclim 模型精度检验的 ROC特征曲线和 Kappa 值分别为0.941 和 0.885,满足了用于分析的薯莨分布区预测要求。
关键词:  薯莨,气候因子,地理分布,BIOCLIM模型,分布区预测
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基金项目:广东省天意莨绸保护基金会资助项目(119-6/F)
Geographical distribution and suitable areas prediction of Dioscorea cirrhosa
linyan
South China Agricultural University
Abstract:
Based on the information of 86 geographical distribution points, this paper used Bioclim model to predict the current and future suitable distribution areas of Dioscorea cirrhosa. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to quantitatively analyze the key climatic factors that dominate the geographical distribution of D. cirrhosa. The results showed that the most densely distributed areas were Guangxi and Guangdong. Under the situation of climate change in the future, the distribution range of D. cirrhosa could be narrowed in Fujian, Jiangxi and other places, showing a trend of concentration to the highest suitable areas, Guangdong and Guangxi, while a new distribution area may appear at the junction of Hunan and Guizhou. The ROC curve and Kappa value of the Bioclim model test are 0.941 and 0.885 respectively, which met the predicted requirements of the distribution area of D. cirrhosa for analysis.
Key words:  Dioscorea cirrhosa,climate factor,geographical distribution,BIOCLIM model,suitable distribution area